Half of U.S. Metros Rising, Half Falling. Here’s How Dallas Compares

If you've read the latest housing headlines, you've probably seen some conflicting takes. As we delve into the current housing market trends, it's important to understand both national and local perspectives.

A new Zillow report found that, in half of the country's largest metros, home values rose over the past year. In the other half, they fell. This split in the housing market forecast makes it crucial to examine what's happening nationally and, more importantly, how it compares to what we're seeing here in Dallas-Fort Worth.

National Market Trends

At the national level, home values have barely moved, rising just 0.2% over the past year. This statistic alone doesn't paint the full picture of housing market trends across the country:

• Home values rose in 25 major markets, mostly in the Midwest and Northeast. Cleveland (+4.7%) and Hartford (+4.5%) led the pack.

• Home values fell in 25 markets, especially in the South and West. Tampa (-6.2%), Austin (-6%), and Miami (-4.6%) saw the steepest declines.

Aside from home prices, here's what's happening across the country in the current housing market:

• Sellers cut prices on 27.4% of listings, the highest rate since tracking began in 2018.

• Homes are lingering on the market longer, with a median 60 days on market, the slowest July in over a decade.

• Mortgage costs are down slightly, about $19 per month compared to last year, but still nearly $1,000 higher than before the pandemic.

That means affordability remains a challenge, even in markets where buyers have the upper hand. These factors contribute to the complex housing market predictions experts are making for the coming months.

What's Happening in Dallas

National trends don't always tell the full story. Here's the local data for the Dallas-Fort Worth housing market:

• Median home prices: $369,096 (-3.9%).

• Price cuts: 36.8% of listings with reductions compared to 27.4% nationally.

• Days on market: Homes here are selling in 35 days on average, compared to the national 60-day median.

• Inventory: 39,246 (+24.1%).

The combination of a sharp increase in inventory and continued concerns over interest rates has subtly presented an amazing opportunity for buyers to have more purchasing power when shopping for a new home. This increase in housing supply could potentially alleviate some of the housing supply shortage seen in recent years.

What It Means for Buyers

Nationally, buyers are seeing more homes sit longer and more price cuts. Even with Dallas-Fort Worth being one of the more desirable markets currently, buyer demand has not met the increase in inventory. This gives buyers the upper hand and allows for the ability to negotiate rate buy downs, lower purchase prices, seller covered closing costs and more that may not otherwise be possible in a hot market. Just remember, if you're waiting for rates to drop, so is everyone else.

If you're looking to buy, here's my advice based on current housing market predictions:

• Get with a professional and put together a game plan.

• Watch for price reductions. It's a sign sellers are willing to negotiate.

• Get pre-approved so you're ready to act when the right home hits the market.

• Don't assume headlines about "falling prices" apply here. Check the local stats.

What It Means for Sellers

The national data is clear: Homes that are overpriced are sitting. Homes that are priced right are still selling. This trend is reflected in existing home sales data across the country.

Dallas-Fort Worth very much depends on several factors and the sub-market, but what remains proven, is that the well-priced, well-maintained homes are still selling in 1-2 weeks. On the other hand, an overreach on list price or homes needing too much work before being 'move-in ready' risk going stale, leading to possibly 2-3 months on market and significantly less offers or interest. If time isn't a factor and you'd like to maximize value, it might be best to wait for more demand in the market.

If you're thinking of selling, remember:

• Get with your agent and discuss a strategy to maximize value and demand.

• Pricing competitively from the start is more important than ever.

• Buyers are savvy, with plenty of data at their fingertips.

• Making your home shine online with great photos, 3D tours, or floor plans can help you stand out.

The Bottom Line

Kara Ng, a senior economist at Zillow, summed it up best: "Perhaps more than ever, whether it's a good time to buy depends on where you live."

The housing market is split nationally, but what really matters is what's happening locally. If you're thinking of buying or selling in Dallas-Fort Worth, the numbers show that strategy matters more than ever.

Pricing, timing, and presentation will determine who wins in this market. Keep an eye on new home construction trends as well, as they can impact the overall housing supply and demand dynamics in your area.